Finansnyt

Er pengepolitik en videnskab?

Nyt studie fra US Dallas Fed. førsøger at give svaret på, om pengepolitik er en videnskab. Sådan lyser deres korte referat, mens hele rapporten kan downloades ved at klikke på billedet herover:

Abstract
In recent decades, the declarations of “independent” central banks and the conduct of
monetary policy have been assigned an ever increasing role in the pursuit of economic and
financial stability. This is curious since there is, in practice, no body of scientific knowledge
(evidence based beliefs) solid enough to have ensured agreement among central banks on
the best way to conduct monetary policy. Moreover, beliefs pertaining to every aspect of
monetary policy have also changed markedly and repeatedly. This paper documents how the
objectives of monetary policy, the optimal exchange rate framework, beliefs about the
transmission mechanism, the mechanism of political oversight, and many other aspects of
domestic monetary frameworks have all been subject to great flux over the last fifty years.
The paper also suggests ways in which the current economic and financial crisis seems likely
to affect the conduct of monetary policy in the future. One possibility is that it might lead to
yet another fundamental reexamination of our beliefs about how best to conduct monetary
policy in an increasingly globalized world. The role played by money and credit, the
interactions between price stability and financial stability, the possible medium term risks
generated by “ultra easy” monetary policies, and the facilitating role played by the
international monetary (non) system all need urgent attention. The paper concludes that,
absent the degree of knowledge required about its effects, monetary policy is currently being
relied on too heavily in the pursuit of “strong, balanced and sustainable growth.”