Står den amerikanske vækst til endnu en nedjustering?
Posted af John Yde, 04/08/2010
Ifølge en analyse fra J. P. Morgan står den amerikanske vækstrate til endnu en nedjustering fra 2,4% til 1,7% for 2. kvartal – især på baggrund af ændrede lagre.
Den seneste store revision af BNP justerede væksten ned jvnf. denne figur:
Det var især det personlige forbrug, der blev justeret nedad, som dette billede viser:
J.P. Morgan skriver:
The assumption that the Bureau of Economic Analysis had made regarding factory inventories in their initial estimate for Q2 GDP was a bit off the mark, and it now appears that growth last quarter was closer to 1.7%, rather than the 2.4% reported last Friday. (Of this downward revision, 0.1%-point came in yesterday’s construction report).
Inventories at manufacturers of nondurable goods decreased around $4 billion in June, rather than increasing $1 billion as BEA had assumed. As a result, it now appears economy-wide nonfarm inventories increased at a $55 billion annual rate last quarter, and stcokbuilding contributed 0.5%-point to GDP growth, rather than the 1.1%-point initially reported.
With the implied revisions, second quarter growth is now looking especially soft. On the brighter side, the prospect of a big inventory overhang weighing on third quarter production — which loomed large in the initial estimate — now appears less threatening.