Hvorfor man ikke kan forudsige valget
Posted af John Yde, 09/11/2016
Financial Times har på sin Alphaville en interessant kommentar fra et web-møde i Lisabon, hvor en af IT genierne udtaler:
“You can’t model emotions. At the end of the day people had to walk into a booth, in secret and I think it’s really really hard to model that… modeling works very well when you have a long series of repeatable events, like credit card transactions. You can get a pretty good sense of what’s going to happen the next day, or market data. You can back test that. The reason you can’t model a Brexit, however, is because it’s a one off thing and there was no Brexit data that comes before it. There’s no data you can collect to model this one time thing. The problem with presidential elections is that they happen once in four years. And the data hasn’t been around long enough.”